why the local spikes are unlikely to lead to more coronavirus deaths

The recent spikes of coronavirus cases in local areas around the UK are unlikely to lead to more deaths, latest NHS Test and Trace data suggests.

New charts showing the age range of those testing positive for the virus in hotspot areas such as Blackburn with Darwen, Oldham, Leicester and Bradford, reveal that the vast majority of those impacted are under 65.

In contrast, at the height of the pandemic, large numbers of older people were testing positive.

The age difference matters because older people are far more likely to be hospitalised and to die from the epidemic. Recent evidence suggests that the risk of death for under-65s is around 1 in 3,300. For under-45s, it is around 1 in 21,000, and for under-34s, 1 in 66,653.

In contrast, the risk of death is 1 in 859 for the 65s to 74s, 1 in 179 for the over-75s, and 1 in 52 for the over-90s. 

Admissions data compiled by the NHS also proves that the uptick in cases is not causing a similar rise in hospitalisations. There has been no increase in admissions, even in the north west where cases are high. 

On August 9, the most recent date that data is available for, there were zero admissions of anyone under 65 in the north west, and just four people over 65.

For England, just five people under 65 were admitted with coronavirus on the same day, and six people 65 and over. The seven-day rolling average for England by August 9 was just 19 new admissions per day. 

There are also fewer people now in hospital with Covid-19 than when the NHS began keeping records on March 20. Just 599 beds are currently occupied with Covid-19 patients, compared with nearly 19,000 at the peak of the epidemic.

There is also evidence that the death rate from Covid-19 has been falling steadily since March when it was around six per cent overall. It is now around one per cent. 

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